20.10.2020
Monitoring of local elections 2020: UKRAINE (16-19 October 2020)
- The results of a survey conducted by Rating Group on 16–19 October recorded a gradual increase in positive expectations from elections at the local level since the start of the study (early September 2020). Today, 34% of respondents believe that the situation as a result of the elections in their city/village will improve. 52% believe that nothing will change. Only 6% believe that it will worsen. An increase in optimism is recorded in all age groups.
- 61% of respondents stated that they plan to take part in the local elections. 18% are undecided (50/50), another 7% may take part, and 13% say participation is unlikely. Electoral mobilization is gradually increasing among younger and middle-aged groups.
- In the event of a worsening coronavirus situation, 51% confirmed their readiness to take part in the elections, 21% are undecided (50/50), 9% may come to polling stations, and 17% say participation is unlikely. Over the past two weeks, the number of those ready to come to polling stations even in the event of a worsening epidemic has increased.
- 58% of respondents said they have already decided whom to vote for, while 40% have not decided. Among those who said they would definitely come to polling stations, 73% have made their choice. A relatively higher level of certainty is observed among the oldest respondents.
- According to the aggregated party rating for local elections, five parties cross the notional 5% threshold: “Servant of the People” with 16.7% among those who have decided and have a firm intention to vote, “Opposition Platform – For Life” with 13.5%, “European Solidarity” with 13.2%, “Batkivshchyna” with 8.6%, and “For the Future” with 7.4%.
- The party “Nash Krai” is supported by 4.0%. The Radical Party of Oleh Liashko has 3.3%, UDAR of Vitalii Klychko 2.7%, Svoboda 2.3%, the Shariy Party 1.9%, “Proposition” 1.6%, “Holos” 1.4%, “Strength and Honor” 1.2%, and “Victory of Palchevskyi” 0.9%. The combined rating of other parties (mainly local ones) participating in the local elections and included in the study list is 21.3%.
- 48% believe that there will be minor falsifications in the local elections. 28% are convinced that they will be significant. 16% believe there will be none. Over the past month, the number of those expecting significant falsifications has increased.
- 62% of respondents have a negative attitude toward situations where, during elections, some politicians and parties provide material assistance to voters (distribute food packages, money, funds for repairs or treatment). 19% have a neutral attitude, and 15% a positive one. At the same time, only 6% personally encountered attempts at bribery, 11% know about this from relatives or acquaintances, and 81% did not have such experience during this election campaign.
- 57% have heard about the Government’s recommendation to vote using one’s own pen, while 42% have not. Only one third know about the recommendation not to bring children to polling stations. 65% do not know about it, with a higher share among those who have children under 16. Despite this, 87% support this recommendation, while only 10% hold the opposite view.
Methodology
- Audience: Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older in all regions except the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender and type of settlement.
- Sample size: 5,000 respondents.
- Survey method: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers.
- Representative error of the study: no more than 1.4%.
- Fieldwork dates: 16-19 October 2020.
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