20.05.2021
Two years of President Zelensky: citizens' assessments
- Recent polling data over the past three months shows a stable positive trend in public assessments of the country’s direction, along with rising levels of trust and electoral support for President Volodymyr Zelenskyi. According to a survey conducted by Rating Group between 16–18 May 2021, one quarter of Ukrainians believe the country is moving in the right direction, while two thirds hold the opposite view; another 9% were unsure. Younger respondents and supporters of “Servant of the People” and “Holos” tend to assess the situation more positively.
- Among all individuals who have held the office of President of Ukraine, the highest trust rating belongs to the incumbent, Volodymyr Zelenskyi: 46% trust him and 51% do not. Trust in Leonid Kuchma stands at 36% (with 58% expressing distrust), the same level of trust is observed for Leonid Kravchuk, although distrust is slightly lower at 53%. Viktor Yushchenko is trusted by 29% and distrusted by 66%. Petro Poroshenko is trusted by 24% and distrusted by 75%. Viktor Yanukovych has the lowest trust indicators: 15% trust him, while 82% do not. Compared to Poroshenko and Yanukovych at the same point in their presidencies, Zelenskyi’s trust/distrust balance is significantly more favorable.
- Parliamentary preferences are led by “Servant of the People,” supported by 24.8% of those who intend to vote and have made their choice. “European Solidarity” receives 13.5%, “Opposition Platform – For Life” 13.2%, and “Batkivshchyna” 11.8%. Support for other parties is substantially lower, with none exceeding 5%.
- If presidential elections were held soon, 30.2% of decided voters would support Zelenskyi. Petro Poroshenko would receive 12.8%, Yurii Boiko 11.9%, Yuliia Tymoshenko 11.1%, Ihor Smeshko 7.6%, and Yevhen Murayev 5.1%. Support for other candidates is below 5%. In all simulated second-round scenarios, Zelenskyi would win convincingly: he would defeat Poroshenko by 68% to 32%, Tymoshenko by 62% to 38%, and Boiko by 69% to 31%.
- When asked who they consider the best president of independent Ukraine, respondents most often named Leonid Kuchma (23%). Eighteen percent consider Zelenskyi the best, 14% point to Poroshenko, 13% to Yanukovych, and 12% to Kravchuk. Only 7% believe Viktor Yushchenko was the best. Nine percent said that none of the presidents were the best, and 5% were undecided.
- A quarter of respondents rate Zelenskyi’s second year in office as excellent or good, 34% as satisfactory, and 42% as poor or terrible. More positive evaluations come from residents of the West and Centre, younger respondents, and Zelenskyi’s own supporters. Among government initiatives, the highest ratings were given to the “State in a Smartphone” program, the “Big Construction” initiative, the release of prisoners and hostages, strengthening national defence, foreign policy, and efforts to unify the country. Mid-range assessments were given to the COVID-19 response, education reform, personnel renewal in public administration, the Donbas ceasefire, and social protection. The most negatively evaluated areas were healthcare reform, economic development, land reform, reducing oligarchic influence on politics, and combating corruption.
Methodology
- Audience: Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older in all regions except the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender and type of settlement.
- Survey method: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews). Based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers.
- Sample size: 2,500 respondents.
- The margin of error for the study with a confidence level of 0.95 is no more than 2.0%.
- Fieldwork dates: 16-18 May 2021.
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