20.10.2020
Monitoring of local elections 2020: Chernivtsi
- The results of a survey conducted by Rating Group on 17–19 October among residents of Chernivtsi showed that city residents assess the situation in the city and in the country equally pessimistically. Thus, 70% believe that affairs in the country are developing in the wrong direction, while 19% think they are moving in the right direction. With regard to the city, 17% believe that affairs are moving in the right direction, while 76% believe they are moving in the wrong direction.
- 69% said that they will definitely take part in the local elections, another 13% are hesitant about whether to participate, 3% may take part, and 15% say it is unlikely that they will vote. Voter mobilization is relatively higher among older residents.
- In the rating for the Chernivtsi City Council, the party “Yedyna Alternatyva” is in the lead with a rating of 18.9% among those who will vote and have decided on their choice. This is followed by the party “Team of Mykhailishyn,” which is ready to be supported by 16.7%, “Servant of the People” with 12.2%, “European Solidarity” with 9.0%, “Proposition” with 9.0%, the Party of Chernivtsi Residents with 4.7%, “For the Future” with 4.5%, “Batkivshchyna” with 4.4%, and “Opposition Platform – For Life” with 4.0%. The ratings of other parties are below 4%. About 17% have not yet decided.
- Among the mayoral candidates, Vitalii Mykhailishyn is the leader, with 28.9% among those who will vote and have decided on their choice. 24.8% are ready to support Roman Klichuk, 17.3% Oleksii Kaspruk, 8.6% Vitalii Druhanovskyi, and 4.0% Vasyl Maksymiuk. The ratings of other candidates are below 4%. About 13% of respondents have not decided whom they will vote for.
- 35.0% believe that Roman Klichuk will become the new mayor of Chernivtsi. 32.4% believe that it will be Vitalii Mykhailishyn, 17.9% Oleksii Kaspruk, and 10.0% Vitalii Druhanovskyi. Less than 1% believe in the victory of other candidates.
- Modeling of the second round of the mayoral elections showed that if R. Klichuk were to advance to the second round against other potential candidates, the candidate from the party “Yedyna Alternatyva” would win. In a runoff against O. Kaspruk, the result would be 47% versus 29%; against V. Druhanovskyi, 43% versus 19%; and against V. Mykhailishyn, 42% versus 36%. In a matchup between O. Kaspruk and V. Mykhailishyn, the latter would win with a result of 42% versus 35%.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Chernivtsi aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age and gender.
- Sample size: 1,200 respondents.
- Survey method: face-to-face formalised interviews.
- Research representativeness error: no more than 2.8%.
- Fieldwork dates: 17-19 October 2020.
- Research client: PGR Consulting Group LLC
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