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• According to the survey conducted by the Sociological Group "Rating" on March 8-9, 91% of the respondents feel hope when thinking about the situation in Ukraine. Only 6% feel hopeless. The highest level of hope was recorded in all the regions.
• 57% of the respondents believe that Ukraine will be able to win the war with Russia over the coming weeks: 18% think that we will win in a week, while 39%, in a few weeks. 18% of the respondents believe that the war will last several months, and only 9% think that the war will end in six months or more. There are almost none of those who do not believe in Ukraine’s victory at all. 16% could not answer this question. The residents of the Western region are the most optimistic. Still, in other oblasts, the majority also believe that the war will not last long.
• 92% of the respondents believe that Ukraine will be able to repel Russia's attack. This share is increasing almost on a daily basis. Today, only 6% do not have such confidence. The belief in Ukraine’s victory prevails in all the regions of the country.
• More than 80% answered that they are helping in the defense of Ukraine in some way. In particular, now 39% of the respondents are helping people and the army as volunteers, 37% help financially. Also, 18% participate in the informational resistance, and 12% continue to work in the critical infrastructure. 10% of Ukrainians said they participate in the territorial defense. Only 19% said they are not able to help the country now. More often, it's elderly people. However, even among the elderly people, most are involved in the resistance at the moment.
• The vast majority (97%) of respondents plan to stay in Ukraine in the nearest future.
• 63% support the idea of severing ties between the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchate and the Russian Orthodox Church. Only 10% do not support this idea. Another 18% said they did not care, and 9% could not answer. Among the members of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchate, more than half also support severing ties with the Russian Orthodox Church, a quarter say they are indifferent and only 13% oppose the severance.
• 40% of Ukrainians believe that most Russians support the war against Ukraine. A quarter of the respondents believe that every second person in Russia supports the war, and a quarter think that supporters of the war are in the minority there.
• 42% believe that there can be no discussion of ever restoring friendly relations between Ukrainians and Russians. 22% think that it is possible in 20-30 years after the war, 18%, that it is possible in 10-15 years, and only 12% believe that the restoration of friendship is possible in a couple of years after the war. Residents of the South and the East and those who have relatives in Russia believe in the restoration of those relations a little more. But even among them, more than a third do not believe in the return of friendship between the two nations.
• The survey conducted by the Sociological Group “Rating” on March 8-9, 2022, showed that Ukrainians consider the diplomatic (48%) and humanitarian (47%) support for Ukraine from Western partners to be relatively sufficient.
• The types of support that they consider rather insufficient are financial support (39%, sufficient; 45%, insufficient) and economic sanctions against Russia (32%, sufficient; 62%, insufficient).
• Military assistance to Ukraine was rated the worst: only 29% consider it sufficient, while 62% consider it insufficient. From the regional point of view, the various types of support are rated the worst in the South and in the East, and relatively better, in the West and in the Center.
• Military assistance to Ukraine is the type of international support that Ukrainians expect the most (63%). Regarding this assistance, the respondents demand “closing the sky” (89%) and providing weapons (47%). In addition, one fourth of the respondents consider military medical care and foreign volunteers necessary, while one in five consider it necessary that Ukraine is provided with equipment (walkie-talkies, thermal imagers, etc.), protective vests and helmets.
• Although the majority (50%) believe that the “sky” over Ukraine will be “closed”, only 19% believe that NATO will make such a decision in the nearest future, while 31% think that it will happen later. 43% do not believe that the Western countries will take such a step.
• 79% believe that NATO countries’ delay with “closing the sky” is due to the fear of a direct war with Russia. 12% believe that NATO countries do not want to spoil relations with Russia.
• At the same time, the vast majority of respondents (90%) believe that Ukraine should keep up the pressure on NATO to “close the sky”.
• According to a survey conducted by the 'Rating' Sociological Group, 55% of respondents believe that only the Russian authorities are to blame for the war against Ukraine. Another 38% place responsibility on both the authorities and the people of the Russian Federation (RF).
• Regarding Belarus, 70% place the blame for the invasion exclusively on the Belarusian authorities, and only 24% on both the authorities and the people of Belarus.
• In a regional breakdown, relatively fewer people in the southern and eastern regions blame both the people and the authorities of Russia for starting the war against Ukraine, placing the blame solely on the RF leadership. As for Belarus, the overwhelming majority across all macro-regions (from 60% in the West to 80% in the East) place the blame for the invasion only on the leadership of that state.
• According to the survey conducted by the Sociological group "Rating" on March 1, 90% of the respondents feel hope when they think about the situation in Ukraine. Only 5% experience disappointment. Compared to the pre-war times, the share of those who feel hope has tripled. The record high level of hope is observed in almost all the regions of Ukraine.
• 88% of the respondents believe that Ukraine will be able to repel Russia's attack. This number is increasing almost daily. Today, only 10% are not confident in this. The belief in Ukraine’s victory prevails in all regions of the country.
• 98% of the respondents support the activities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 93% support the activities of the President, and 84% support the actions of local mayors.
• 80% of the respondents said they were ready to defend the territorial integrity of Ukraine with weapons in hand. Compared to the pre-war times, this figure has significantly increased (it was 59% in 2020). The highest level of readiness is observed in the West and in the Center, while a slightly lower one, in the South and in the East. But even in the South-Eastern regions, the readiness to fight for the Motherland is extremely high (almost 80% in the South and almost 60% in the East).
• The support for Ukraine's accession to the European Union and NATO is the highest over the history of our surveys: 86% support accession to the EU and 76% support joining NATO. Compared to the pre-war period, the support for EU and NATO accession has increased by more than 20 percentage points. This positive dynamics took place due to the growing support for accession to the Western structures among the population of the South and the East. In terms of age, there is unanimous support for Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO in all the categories.
• 61% of the respondents believe that Ukraine will become a member of the EU in the nearest future (within 1 or 2 years). 13% believe that our country will become a member of the EU in 5 years, while 6% believe it will happen later. 17% are not sure in their estimates. Only 4% do not believe that Ukraine will become a member of the EU. Compared to last year, the share of those who do not believe in Ukraine's European integration has decreased significantly (it was 26% in November 2021).
• According to a survey conducted by the 'Rating' Sociological Group, 70% of respondents are confident that Ukraine will be able to repel the attack of the Russian occupiers, while 16% are not confident. The level of belief in our own Armed Forces has increased significantly over the past week. No region shows a prevalence of pessimistic sentiments. The highest level of confidence in the Armed Forces is in the West and Center (75-78%). It is relatively lower in the South and East (64-66%).
• 91% of Ukrainians support the actions of President Zelenskyy. 6% do not support them, and 3% were unable to answer. Importantly, support for the actions of the President of Ukraine has tripled since December 2021.
• An extremely high level of support for Zelenskyy is observed in all regions of the country: over 90% in the West and Center, and over 80% in the East and South.
• According to a survey conducted by the 'Rating' Sociological Group on February 11-18, 2022, Volodymyr Zelenskyy leads the confidence rating for politicians: 41% of respondents trust him, while 57% distrust him. Volodymyr Groysman is trusted by 35% and distrusted by 55%. Vitali Klitschko is trusted by 34% and distrusted by 57%. Dmytro Razumkov is trusted by 32%, distrusted by 38%, and 25% are unfamiliar with him. Petro Poroshenko is trusted by 28% and distrusted by 70%. Yulia Tymoshenko is trusted by 26% and distrusted by 72%. Arseniy Yatsenyuk is trusted by 24% and distrusted by 72%. Ihor Smeshko is trusted by 24%, distrusted by 34%, and 37% are unfamiliar with him. Yuriy Boyko is trusted by 22% and distrusted by 62%. Arsen Avakov is trusted by 22% and distrusted by 66%. Oleh Lyashko is trusted by 18% and distrusted by 76%.
• The political party rating is led by the 'Servant of the People' party, which is ready to be supported by 19.6% of those who will vote and have decided on their choice. Following are the 'European Solidarity' party with 17.7%, 'Batkivshchyna' with 11.5%, and 'Opposition Platform – For Life' with 9.5%. The 'Strength and Honor' party is ready to be supported by 7.6%, Razumkov's 'Smart Politics' party by 6.7%, Murayev's 'Nashi' party by 5.4%, the 'Ukrainian Strategy of Groysman' party by 4.8%, the Radical Party by 3.9%, All-Ukrainian Union 'Svoboda' by 3.2%, People's Front (Yatsenyuk, Avakov) by 3.2%, and 'UDAR of Vitali Klitschko' by 3.1%.
• V. Zelenskyy is the leader of the presidential rating, whom 24.6% of those who have decided on their choice and intend to vote are ready to support. P. Poroshenko is supported by 18.0%, Y. Tymoshenko by 9.5%, and Y. Boyko by 8.3%. I. Smeshko is ready to receive 7.5% of the votes, D. Razumkov 6.9%, Y. Murayev 5.9%, V. Groysman 5.3%, O. Lyashko 2.9%, and A. Yatsenyuk 2.2%. The ratings of other candidates do not exceed 2%.
• According to a survey conducted by the 'Rating' Sociological Group on February 16-17, 2022, 19% of respondents assess the probability of a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine by Russia as high, 33% as medium, and 20% as low, while 25% believe there is no threat at all. The number of respondents who see no threat differs significantly by region: from 14% in the West to 42% in the East of the country.
• At the same time, the majority of respondents (64%) are confident that Ukraine will be able to repel the attack if a Russian invasion occurs. One-third are not confident in this. The number of respondents who believe in their own Armed Forces prevails in all regions of the country (relatively higher in the West and Center, relatively lower in the East).
• Thus, over the last few days, the assessment of the threat's probability as high decreased from 28% to 19%. At the same time, citizens' confidence that Ukraine will be able to repel the attack if a Russian invasion occurs increased from 58% to 64%.
The Third In-Depth Look at Ukrainian Local Governance
This annual survey provides an extensivelook at citizen attitudes about local governance and municipal services.
Polling was conducted in the 22 regional capitals of Ukraine not under the control of Russian or Russian-backed forces, as well as in the cities of Mariupol and Severodonetskin the Donbas region.The survey is based on a sample size of more than 19,000 respondents.
The findings will inform future discussions on decentralization, anti-corruption initiatives and other reforms set forth by the pro-European government in Kyiv.
The survey was conducted by Sociological Group “Rating” (Rating Group Ukraine) on behalf of the International Republican Institute.
The data was collected in 24 cities of Ukraine (Kyiv and all oblast centers; in Donetsk oblast – Mariupol, in Luhansk oblast – Sievierodonetsk) between January 20, 2016 and February 8, 2016, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes.
The sample consisted of 19,200 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. It is representative for the general population by age, education and sex. To ensure representativeness, the sample was split in accordance with division of cities into electoral districts, which were provided by the Central Electoral Committee. At least 50 polling sites (50 previously selected sites) were covered in each city. They were selected at random, using the curtain step method. The random route and ‘next birthday’ rule were used for respondents’ selection procedures.
For reference, the previous municipal survey was conducted in 22 cities between March 2, 2015 to March 20, 2015. The sample size consisted of 17,600 respondents.
The margin of error for each city does not exceed ±3.5 percent.
The average response rate is 62.8 percent.
Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.
The survey was funded by the Government of Canada.
The poll was conducted in all regions of Ukraine (with the exception of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) from July 16-30, 2015, with an oversample in the Odesa region. The national survey had a randomly selected sample of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent, and the response rate was 62.8 percent. The oversample in Odesa had a randomly selected sample size of 665 permanent residents, a 61.8 percent response rate and a margin of error that does not exceed plus or minus 3.8 percent.international.
The survey was conducted by Rating Group Ukraine for International Republican Institute (IRI) and was funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development.